Where Do Reported Long-Video QA Gains Come From? A Controlled Audit of Frame Selection, Evidence Injection, and Expert Routing

arXiv:2611.07329v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-video question answering is usually studied as frame selection: which few frames should a vision-language model see? We introduce VideoRouteAudit, a controlled audit that separates this choice from two alternatives, injecting non-visual evidence and routing to another answering model. It holds the backbone, frame budget, decoding, prompt and grader fixed while varying one decision at a time. On the full Video-MME long bucket (n=900, K=8), no tested selector significantly improves over uniform sampling. The largest selection-only estimate is +1.9 pt (95% CI [-1.2,+5.0]) and our cascade is +1.2 pt [-1.7,+4.1]; all are equivalent to uniform within +/-5 pt. The same contrasts are unstable at the n=200 subset scale commonly used: three of four are up to 3.8x larger, one reverses sign, and resampled 200-item subsets reverse the full-bucket effect's sign in 35.8% of draws. The audit also corrects our own first results. The anomaly-domain "+ASR"…